The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19% in October. The 10-City Composite annual increase was 16.8% in November, down from 17.2% in the previous month, while the 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 18.3%, down from 18.5% in October.
“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.2%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s. Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data—the top five were the months immediately preceding November.”
Among the 20 cities included in the report, Phoenix; Tampa, Florida; and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains at 32.2%, 29%, and 26.6%, respectively. Eleven of the 20 cities analyzed reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 compared with the year ending October 2021.
“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended November 2021, and the prices in 19 cities are at their all-time highs,” Lazzara says. “November’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decline for 16 of them. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast—both +25%—but every region continued to log impressive gains.”
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.9% in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively.
“Buyers house hunting today are finding a very challenging market to navigate,” Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf says. “While the latest Case-Shiller report shows the slightest deceleration in year-over-year growth, the month-over-month change shows that prices are still rising. Higher home price growth, limited housing inventory, and urgency created by rising mortgage rates are making the housing market as competitive as ever.”
