Spring Selling Season Now Starts in January?

The onset of spring home-selling season is, like all things real estate, dependent on location. In some markets, the season springs forth from the Super Bowl. In others, April launched the kickoff of the home shopping season as buyers would come out of their winter hibernation.

However, the spring shopping season now starts in January for many of the nation’s largest markets, according to new research released Wednesday by realtor.com. The analysis is based on average monthly views per listing on realtor.com from 2015 to 2019.

In 2015, the peak month for average views per listing on realtor.com was April, while January lagged behind by a substantial 16%. In contrast, for 2019, the month of January fell 1% below February for most monthly views per listing on realtor.com. And January surged to the top in 20 of the 100 largest metro areas, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, San Jose, Calif., and Denver.

In 2018, that was true for just three of the top 100 metros. “As shoppers modify their strategies for navigating a housing market that has become more competitive due to rising prices and low inventory, the search for a home is beginning earlier and earlier,” said realtor.com Senior Economist George Ratiu. “With housing inventory across the U.S. expected to reach record lows in 2020, we expect to see this trend continue into the new year.”

As of November, the number of homes for sale across the country was down 9.5% year-over-year. Additionally, the inventory of entry-level homes priced below $200,000 shrunk by an astonishing 16.5% year-over-year.

The shift to January’s newfound popularity does not mean that the other prime spring months have become less competitive, Realtor.com asserts. Data shows that views per listing used to ramp up into spring, but now competition starts high in January and stays high.

For example, in 2018, March, the most competitive month, had 21% more views per listing than the least competitive month, January. In 2019, that gap between most-and least-competitive months narrowed to a difference of just 6%. What used to be a lopsided bias for April is now a feverish search starting in January.

Locally, Seattle had the greatest spike in home shopping in January 2019, with views per property 32% higher than the next-highest month. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas; San Francisco; Atlanta; and San Jose, Calif. metros rounded out the top five markets where January was the most competitive month in 2019. Top Markets Where January was the Most Competitive Month in 2019