Let the forecasting begin.
Here, Calculated Risk’s Bill McBride posts the first batch of 2016 housing data outlooks, with plans to add what he promises will be “many more” over the next few weeks.
Eventually, Bill will voice his own opinion as to how the next 12-month period will look for housing.
Weighing into the estimates and crystal ball predictions are headwinds and tailwinds.
The headwinds include:
- Global economic weakness
- Global political turmoil
- Oil glut
- College debt
- Corporate profitability weakness
- Domestic political gridlock
- Wage growth weakness
- Labor constraints
- Municipal over-regulation
- Weather
Here are some tailwinds:
- Demographics
- Pent-up demand
- Relative house price headroom
- Global liquidity, need for yield
- Historically low interest rates
- Easing Credit Access
- Spiraling, sky-rocketing rents
- Job growth
- Consumer confidence
- Resilience
At least 10 constructive forces offset by at least 10 corrosive ones. What we know is that many companies plan to increase their community counts, and that lower-priced homes are the highlight of lots of those new neighborhoods. There are signs aplenty that demand awaits the delivery of new home supply.
What’s your market telling you about 2016?
