Another potentially “catastrophic” hurricane, Irma, bears down on all that’s in her way as she barrels through the Caribbean, heading northwest this morning, with one called Jose brewing up trouble out in the east Atlantic and yet even another, Katia, stirring up a major storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
Even as images of a barely emerged Houston–not expected to lie in Irma’s path–reveal a city hell-bent on restoring normalcy in baby steps and super-human bounds, it’s hard not to flashback to the horror of just a few days ago, when photos and footage of those very same square miles showed a massive brown lake with a scatter-plot of islands protruding from the flood.
An almost science fiction surreal-ness swapped air, and streets, and lawns, and parking lots, and warehouses, etc. with a sudden 3-foot, or 8-foot, or 15-foot crushing swell of water where it did not belong. Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates–regarded as overly conservative on the low-side by county officials–are that 90,000 residential structures in Harris, Galveston and Fort Bend Counties could have been damaged by floods from the storm. Harris County officials say the number should be more like 136,000 homes damaged in the area.
Here, from consultancy Principia, is analysis on Harvey’s potential impact on building materials supply, through the filter of an estimated total 1.8 million housing units in the Houston and Beaumont Core Based Statistical Areas, whose replacement value runs upwards of $474 billion.
These replacement value housing figures can be translated into demand for specific building product categories with Principia’s DemandBuilder® data products. DemandBuilder® Roofing reveals an estimated 54.5 MMSQ of existing roofing in the Houston-Beaumont areas with a replacement value of $3.7 billion in materials alone. The bulk of this volume is in the Harris County area with 35.4 MMSQ valued at $2.4 billion. Although these figures represent 100% replacement, a more complete assessment of the impact on material demand will only be finalized after the complete damage of the storm has been determined. For example, if a quarter of the roofs in Harris county need to be replaced, this would represent 8.9 million squares or $600 million of roofing that would be needed.
The outpouring of generosity we’ve heard about in the past week, from every part of the home building business community, has been deeply heartening. Reflexively, we help our own, and fact is, many of our own, men and women in the trades, in our home building development organizations, and the entire ecosystem, from investment, to supply chains, to marketing, and sales, and data capture … all were equally susceptible to being swept into the flood.
We had this account from one of our friends, Caroline Stallwitz, shortly after the rain stopped at the end of last week:
My family is three miles downstream from Barker Reservoir, we are 1/2 mile north of Buffalo Bayou. We and thousands of others are what’s in the “inundation map” of the controlled release of water coming from the reservoir to lessen the pressure. This means the flooding continues to worsen in our area. The sun has been shining for two days now, yet the water continues to rise. You couldn’t possibly understand what a feeling of hopelessness it is. Just when we thought the worst was over from the rains, it isn’t.
… HOUSTON NEEDS [building materials and products suppliers] TO STEP UP NOW!!! Send every kind of building product possible, because we need it all, in amounts that would surpass any past home building boom ever experienced.
I have personally been involved in the demonstration homes your publication has sponsored, and I know the influence this has with manufacturers. Consider this the largest homebuilding demonstration project anyone will ever see!
The AIA has already organized a national effort to bring FEMA accredited architects here to help. Between AIA, NAHB and the contracting side, Associated Builders and Contractors, the labor and materials can all be coordinated. Can you help make this happen?
Now, that swell has ebbed, leaving behind what a tidal surge leaves behind after three or four or five days, puddles and rivulets, and dank chaos. One of the issues Houston and places like Beaumont to the northeast, certainly, is the safety of the water, the drinking water supplies essential to any sustained recovery period.
Once that essential, and increasingly, power restoration kick back in, the next big challenge is getting those materials–in barely imaginable quantity and volume–to where they can move logistically through northeast Texas as they need to, real-time, and as efficiently as possible.
Certainly, one organization with infrastructure to manage flows of human and material resources through its system is Habitat for Humanity, whose Houston operation is gearing up for a blitz-style effort. It’s an opportunity for building product manufacturers and materials suppliers, as well as builders and tradespeople to align in an effective, possibly life-altering, way.
At BUILDER and Hanley Wood, we’re grateful for how we’ve seen the industry community respond to fellow humans, and fellow work associates, and fellow community members in a moment of need.
And the next storm will call for more of the same.
