On day one of this year’s Future Place event, industry leaders shared insights on where the development market stands and where it’s headed. From the evolving demographics of homebuyers to the resilience of master-planned communities, the discussions painted a picture of an industry adjusting to change yet preparing for the future.
Ali Wolf’s Market Outlook
Kicking off the day, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist Ali Wolf offered a look at the economic backdrop shaping today’s housing market. Despite economic turbulence, consumers have seen an 8 to 11% increase in purchasing power this year. That gain comes amid anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, slower economic growth, and the lingering uncertainty of what became the second-longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
Yet more inventory means less urgency. “Fifty-eight percent of top markets now have more inventory than in 2019,” Wolf noted. “Consumers don’t feel pressured to act immediately.”
Demographics are reshaping the market as well. The median age of a first-time homebuyer is approaching 40, signaling how affordability and life-stage decisions are delaying entry into homeownership. Meanwhile, about 11,000 Americans reach traditional retirement age each day, and many are seeking “move-down” homes—particularly in Florida and the Northeast.
Other notable demographic shifts include:
- Millennials split evenly between renting and owning.
- Gen Z renters renewing leases at record rates, opting for stability over mobility.
- Married couples still lead in home purchases, while single women—especially baby boomers—make up roughly 25% of buyers.
- Diversity remains a generational story: 72% of boomers are white, while younger generations entering the market are far more diverse.
As for sentiment, Ali pointed out that public perception often outweighs direct economic impact. “Usually, consumers can brush off a short shutdown,” she said. “But once it’s labeled ‘the second longest,’ uncertainty takes over.”
Still, optimism remains. Half of builders expect new housing starts to rise by 2026, signaling faith in the market’s long-term fundamentals.
Master-Planned Communities: What’s Now and What’s Next
Zonda’s Sean Fergus and Mollie Carmichael shifted the focus to master-planned communities (MPCs)—a sector they say continues to outperform broader housing trends. According to Zonda’s data, 29% of all new neighborhoods in the U.S. are within an MPC.
While the Mountain West is facing headwinds, the Southeast and Florida markets are leading the way. “Savannah, Charleston, Miami, and Fort Myers are overperforming,” Fergus reported. “In contrast, Orlando, Tampa, and Texas are seeing softer performance.”
The slowdown, Carmichael explained, is tied less to fundamentals and more to confidence and clarity. Even so, the numbers are encouraging. Carmichael added that the fastest-growing segment is single buyers, highlighting Empire Communities’ success with sub-$300,000 products featuring strong incentives for the segment.
Demographics are also driving the rise of active adult communities. The 65+ population grew 40% in the past year, and that growth shows no sign of slowing. “It’s no surprise that Florida dominates active adult sales,” Fergus noted. “Fifteen of the top 25 MPCs are active adult communities.”
Carmichael added that active-adult buyers are motivated by financial security, health and wellness, and the social connectivity that comes from living among like-minded neighbors. “The social component,” she said, “is the least expensive yet most valuable amenity.”
Top-performing MPCs include Minto Communities’ Watersound, Del Webb River Islands, and Toll Brothers’ Regency Collection, all praised for their thoughtful design and vibrant lifestyle programming.
Regionally, the strongest MPC markets continue to be Florida and Texas, which together account for 10 of the top 20 best-selling communities—including standouts such as The Villages, Lakewood Ranch, Sunterra, Wellen Park, Cane Bay Plantation, and Babcock.
In Houston, the nation’s second-largest homebuilding market, half of the top 20 Texas MPCs are located, led by Sunterra. Looking ahead, Texas, the Southwest, and Florida are seen as having the longest development runways for future MPC growth.
Community Titans: Lessons from the Field
A highlight of the conference was the “Community Titans” panel, featuring Fred Balda of Hillwood Communities, Rob Adams of Tavistock Development Company, and Mike Moser of Starwood Land. The group brought candor and perspective to the question of what’s really happening on the ground.
Moser addressed speculation about whether builders are stepping back. “The phone is ringing,” he said. “Builders want different deal terms, but they’re still active. It’s not dead.” In the next 12 to 15 months, they plan to invest more into sales, marketing, and lifestyle.
On new versus legacy deals, Balda pointed to the strength of retail-driven communities in Austin, Houston, and Dallas. “Our retail components are thriving,” he said. “In Denton, Texas, the new Landmark project landed an H-E-B first.”
Adams echoed that sentiment from Florida: “At Lake Nona, Siemens is moving its headquarters which will amp up our retail and mixed-use.”
When asked about density, Balda’s response was measured. “Density is about timing,” he said. “You probably don’t lead with townhomes—but you need product variety as the community matures.” Adams added that higher-density single-family detached homes are seeing increased demand, in part because insurance and HOA costs for townhomes are now comparable, and single-family is easier to develop.
Both agreed that early design decisions set the tone for long-term success. “Amenities, signage, design—everything has to be right from day one,” Balda emphasized.
Find Balance in the Future with Greg Lindsay
Urbanist and futurist Greg Lindsay’s laid out a long history of development and what the future of community design could be. While alarming with drones, video capturing glasses, and digital twins, it all depends on the balance between humans, technology, and connection.
In the most forward-looking session, Lindsay explored what he called “The Age of Acceleration”—a world reshaped by technology, lifestyle shifts, and post-pandemic living patterns.
“We’re spending more time at home,” Lindsay said. “Online grocery sales have soared since 2021, and the office as we knew it is gone.” He pointed to a paradox: the digital economy may be thriving, but the broader economy is fragile. “If you take out AI,” he warned, “GDP growth is barely there. We’re seeing classic signs of a bubble.”
Still, Lindsay said the desire for connection remains strong despite people becoming more secluded since the pandemic. “Futurama is back in play,” he said.
Getting to Know the 2025 Legends Award Winner
Across sessions, one message resonated: while uncertainty remains—from economic headwinds to evolving buyer demographics—the housing industry continues to adapt. Builders are recalibrating pricing, developers are redefining community experiences, and consumers are gradually regaining confidence.
Resilience was also the focus of the final session’s fireside chat between Legends Award winner Syd Kitson and Zonda’s Tim Sullivan. Kitson looked back on his childhood, love for his parents, and many lessons learned from his football coaches.
Despite the push for automation, Kitson hopes Babcock Ranch serves as a place for kids to enjoy the outdoors—away from screens. “If you drive by our school, you’re going to see hundreds of bikes,” he said. “We hope to get those kids outside and be a part of what nature has to offer.”
