The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index showed a 9.5% annual gain in home prices for November, up from 8.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase rose to 8.8%, up from 7.6% the previous month, and the 20-City Composite rose to a 9.1% annual gain, up from 8% the previous month. (Note that transaction records for Wayne County, Michigan, and thus Detroit, are not available for November.)
“As COVID-related restrictions began to grip the economy last spring, their effect on housing prices was unclear,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Price growth decelerated in May and June before beginning a steady climb upward. November’s report continues that acceleration in a particularly impressive manner. The National Composite last matched this month’s 9.5% growth rate in February 2014, more than six and a half years ago. From the perspective of more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, November’s 9.5% year-over-year change ranks near the top decile of all monthly reports.”
Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego continued to report the strongest year-over-year home price gains in the top 19 cities (Detroit excluded) in November: Phoenix reported a 13.8% YOY home price increase, followed by Seattle at 12.7% and San Diego at 12.3%. All 19 cities reported higher price increases for the year ending November 2020 than for the year ending October 2020. At the regional level, home price growth was strongest in the West at 10.1% YOY, followed by the Southeast at 9.7% YOY.
The U.S. National Index rose by 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in November, while the 10-City Composite showed a 1.2% increase and the 20-City Composite showed a 1.1% increase, all before seasonal adjustment. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.4% month-over-month increase, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 1.4% month-over-month increases. All 19 cities reported increases, before and after seasonal adjustment.
“Recent data are consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes,” adds Lazzara. “This may represent a true secular shift in housing demand, or may simply represent an acceleration of moves that would have taken place over the next several years anyway. Future data will be required to address that question.”
