The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.4% annual gain in April, down from 20.6% in March. The 10-City Composite annual increase was 19.7% in April, while the 20-City Composite posted a 21.2% year-over-year (YOY) gain.
According to Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, the growth rates of the NSA Index, the 10-City Composite, and the 20-City Composite are “extremely strong by historical standards,” at or above the 99th percentile in all three cases.
“The Case-Shiller Index continued its sensational rise upward but showed early signs of deceleration,” says Nikolas Scoolis, manager, housing economics, for Zonda. “Home prices remained up over 20% year over year in April but grew at a slower monthly pace than March. The current interest rate environment is evolving rapidly, and, while this release corresponds with the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates exceeding 5% for the first time since February 2011, rates have continued to climb up an additional 75 basis points putting further pressure on affordability.”
Among the 20 cities analyzed in the April report, Tampa, Florida (+35.8%), Miami (+33.3%), and Phoenix (+31.3%) reported the highest YOY gains in home prices. Nine of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2022 than the year ending March 2022.
“We continue to observe very broad strength in the housing market, as all 20 cities notched double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in April,” Lazzara says. “April’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them.”
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase in April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively.
“We expect to see more significant deceleration in coming releases, but that may take some time to be realized in the data as the index is a lagging indicator and utilizes a trailing three-month moving average,” Scoolis says.
