The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, decelerating from 18.1% growth in June.
Before seasonal adjustments, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composite indices both posted decreases of -0.8%. In July, only seven cities reported an increase before and after seasonal adjustments.
“The new data for July was the first time since 2018 where the index registered a month-over-month decrease, led by more markets in the West,” says Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. “Home price growth has been softening across the country even more since July, so we expect to see additional cooling over the next handful of months.”
The 10-City Composite annual index increased 14.9%, down from 17.4% in the previous month, and the 20-City Composite annual index posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain in July, down from 18.7% in June.
“Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” says Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index.”
According to the index, Miami and Tampa, Florida, as well as Dallas experienced the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities analyzed in July. Tampa reported a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, Miami posted a 31.7% increase, and Dallas experienced a 27.4% increase. However, all 20 cities analyzed reported lower price increases on a year-over-year basis in July than in June.
“July’s year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities, with a median gain of 15%, but in every case July’s gains were less than June’s,” Lazzara says. “Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis. As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (+27.5%) and South (+26.9%).”
“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day,” Lazzara says. “Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”
