Sales of new single‐family houses in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 801,000, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.5% below the revised December rate of 839,000 and is 19.3% below the January 2021 estimate of 993,000.
“Tracking sales is an important metric, but remember sales are really a function of today’s market where low community count, sales caps, and operational challenges are keeping a lid on total transactions,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda. “The key things to watch moving forward are interest rates and inventory, as they have the ability to move sales figures one way or another.”
The median sales price of new homes sold in January was $423,300, while the average sales price was $496,900.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 406,000 at the end of January, representing a 6.1-month supply at the current sales rate.
“This report was modestly weaker than expected, and may have been held back in part by the omicron wave and unseasonably cold weather over the month,” says Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. “However, the figure was still the second highest sales pace since March 2021. Consistent with recent data on existing home sales, we believe many buyers may have rushed to make their purchases around the turn of the year to get ahead of expected increases in mortgage rates.”
In light of recent current events, Wolf adds, “The crisis in Ukraine pushed some investors into 10-year treasury bonds, which has put a lid on yields (and mortgage rates) for now. Lot development data suggests an uptick in new-home inventory throughout this year, but the progress will take time.”
