I think most Western markets are going to see either stabilization or moderate growth in 2026. It won’t be large, rapid growth, but we’ll likely see a bit of a rebound. In places like Denver and Utah, we’re seeing sales contracts begin to level off. Denver underperformed in 2025 compared to 2024, but 2026 looks more positive. We could see some increases, not substantial but enough to signal a shift. Northern Colorado outperformed compared to the previous year in 2025, and I’d expect that trend to continue. Colorado Springs will likely remain flat.
Boise has been strong and should stay that way in the year ahead. Vegas will likely bounce back in 2026. Despite the big drop in spring in Las Vegas, it’s already stabilizing. The real constraint in Vegas is land: there is just five years of lots left at the current sales pace. If land doesn’t open up, the market will have to push out to tertiary areas like Pahrump or go denser in the core. Phoenix and Tucson will also likely see increases, though Phoenix is heavily submarket-dependent.
California is a tougher story. Attainability remains the biggest issue. Southern California and the Bay Area are severely undersupplied, and the lack of replacement lots is pushing buyers farther out. But it depends on whether new communities can get planned and approved. Right now, there’s demand but we just don’t have the product.
Across the West, the markets are underbuilt, especially in the resale market, so the burden falls on new homes. Job growth has stayed solid, and migration patterns into the Mountain West continue. Tariffs and rising materials costs may begin to squeeze builder margins, but if we get rate cuts and margin relief, we could see a healthier market. The biggest opportunities in 2026 will come from identifying product gaps – the lot types and unit types that builders aren’t currently delivering. If builders can identify those gaps in the market, there are opportunities to take advantage.
We’re not going backwards in 2026. It’s not going to be explosive, but it will be a year of stabilization and selective growth across the region.
