Looking ahead to 2026, the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Midwest markets have unique drivers and challenges. Starting with the Mid-Atlantic, this market continues to be shaped by the uncertainty in Washington, D.C. Government spending, shutdowns, and layoffs are having ripple effects across Maryland, Virginia, D.C., Delaware, and even parts of Pennsylvania.
While Northern Virginia remains relatively strong due to defense and intelligence-related employment, the Baltimore metro has been hit hard by the ripple effects from the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in 2024 and low job growth. There’s a real housing supply issue in Maryland, with some jurisdictions not introducing and allowing enough new housing supply to satisfy demand. As a result, housing supply has dropped, and home values have increased significantly in the Baltimore metro. Still, for builders with land, there’s opportunity—particularly if interest rates drop into the new year, which will boost confidence.
Moving to the Northeast, this is largely a mature, resale-driven market, especially in New York and New Jersey. High taxes are continuing to push people out, creating a steady stream of tax refugees heading for places like Delaware, where property taxes are dramatically lower. The big story here will also be interest rates—if the Fed eases further, we’ll see increased affordability for first-time buyers, stronger housing demand, and better performance in the financial sector, which benefits the whole New York City metro.
The Midwest has been one of the recent bright spots in the national housing market. While consumer confidence has worsened recently, affordability, work-from-anywhere trends, and strong quality of life are drawing in-migration from high-cost states. Indianapolis, Columbus, and Minneapolis-St. Paul are leading the charge. Markets like Plainfield, Illinois and Hamilton County in Indiana are booming, and we’re even seeing strong builder interest in secondary markets like Dayton, Ohio, and West Lafayette, Indiana. Builders are active, land is being developed, and lot deliveries are a key metric we’re watching closely. The Midwest offers scale and opportunity in 2026, and we expect that trend to continue if job growth holds steady.
