More than two decades ago, my Zonda Advisory colleague Bob Templeton began translating housing data into school enrollment forecasts at a time when few education professionals had access to that kind of information. That early insight laid the foundation for a consultancy now advising 50 to 60 school districts across Texas and several other states on how demographic shifts impact facility planning.
What started as a growth-focused operation, identifying when and where to build new schools in rapidly expanding communities, has undergone a dramatic evolution. Today, Templeton and his team are just as likely to help districts navigate school closures as they are to plan new campuses. Shifting yield rates, the rise of homeschooling, competition from charter and private schools, and the lingering effects of the pandemic have all upended traditional assumptions.
As school districts adapt to declining enrollment in some areas, Templeton sees new opportunities for developers. Vacant or underutilized school sites, some as large as 100 acres, could be repurposed for housing, retail, or community uses. The key is creative thinking and understanding the new educational landscape.
Tim Sullivan: One of the things that caught my attention when you and I were discussing this offline is that your work has evolved. Explain how things have changed and the underlying factors that affect the decision-making for school districts.
Bob Templeton: Back 15 years ago, it was a lot easier. For every 1,000 homes built, our calculations indicated approximately 600 children. And it was just so fun and exciting because that methodology and those calculations held true for about 10 years. And then we saw a significant change in those yield rates.
The shift was already underway, and when the pandemic emerged, it caused a major disruption, prompting us to evolve our methodology. The advancement of remote work or hybrid work created these opportunities for families to move to different areas.
And because of these flexible work arrangements, we saw a surge in homeschooling. And that is not slowing down, due to some of the technologies that have emerged since then. There’s just a tremendous number of online resources available for homeschool parents.
Families are connecting and forming co-ops, creating small micro-communities.
Homeschooling is no longer an individualized experience. They are connecting and grouping, and it’s a collective experience that’s here to stay.
It’s the biggest limiting factor for public education enrolment.
Sullivan: Can you discuss how the drivers are changing, and then we can explore how land use is changing, because ultimately, that’s the key issue. That’s what we want our clients to be thinking about.
Templeton: This is interesting because when we started our business, 100% of what we did was help school districts plan when and where to build schools. We were involved in discussions with our clients regarding master plan communities. Today, we’re working on as many projects helping school districts close schools as we are helping them open schools.
There’s so much competition. And when I say competition, it’s the competition between charter schools, between neighboring school districts that are now competing against each other. It’s also the online school programs; now, in Texas, they’ve passed the voucher bill.
We’re going to see a significant surge in private school enrollments, which will further erode public school enrollment.
The areas that have some growth, it’s a very complex facility planning picture. In these cases, some of these master plan communities may want to consider a community building, a joint-use facility, or a mixed-use space, and I’m wrestling with the term to use.
Sullivan: They could be all the above, depending on how and when they’re used. There will also be a shift in land use. And so that’s what I want you to take us home with, Bob. What are some of those opportunities for the entrepreneurial builder, developer, home builder, or commercial developer? What’s the opportunity?
Templeton: In some of these older areas with established school districts, an elementary school site is typically located on anywhere from 10 to 17 acres. And sometimes these elementary school sites are adjacent to parks or other amenities, such as trails. There could be some excellent opportunities for redevelopment that incorporate a single-family or multifamily component, making it a nice infill.
A middle school site could be 30 to 50 acres, and it doesn’t take many home sites to make that a nice opportunity.
High school sites, although rare, make great mixed-use or retail spaces.
Sullivan: On the high school sites, how large are those typically?
Templeton: 100 to 120 acres.
Sullivan: Those can be mini master plans.
Templeton: Yep, certainly. That’s why we love doing what we do, and we love thinking outside the box and trying to figure out solutions. We’d love to discuss with developers.
To reach Tim Sullivan and enquire about Zonda’s advisory services, email him at tsullivan@zondahome.com.
