Notes:
*All data and upside/downside commentary courtesy the Meyer’s Group
*Demand/Supply Ratio (1.0 plus — Job-growth-driven-demand exceeds permit supply; 0 to .99 — Supply exceeds demand; less than 0 — Negative job growth)
*Illustrations by John Mattos
Tight housing supply keeps resale equity high … highly educated and skilled workforce … major technology and bio-tech hub … industry diversification … single-family permits up.
Downside
Continued employment losses … rising foreclosure rate … low housing affordability and high business costs … vulnerable to tourism slowdowns … region losing residents … home price appreciation will be modest.
Strong home price appreciation … steady residential construction and new construction projects … steady population growth … effort to revitalize downtown under way.
Downside
Job losses continue … delayed national recovery impacting region … multifamily permit activity waning … declines in vehicle sales negatively affecting metro economy.
Stronger economic recovery than the national norm … steady population growth … good home price appreciation for new and existing homes … strong personal income growth … building permit issuance could set area record.
Downside
Tight supply of developable land pushing prices up … strained regional infrastructure … heavy reliance on tourism … job-driven and demand/supply ratios continue to move back.
Mortgage rates keeping single-family permit activity steady … leaner manufacturing base … fiscally stronger state and local governments … expanding workforce … steady population growth … price appreciation strong.
Downside
National recovery slowing new home orders … airline industry is not stabilized … loss of corporate headquarters hurting local economy … multifamily permitting has trailed off.
Double-digit price appreciation … high per-capita income … single-family and multifamily permit issuances up … employment conditions expected to improve.
Downside
High cost of doing business … population growth below historical average … increasing home prices pulling affordability ratio down … job growth and demand/supply ratios in negative territory.
