The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in December to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in November, and a 0.3% decline in October.
“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the U.S economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2% growth by the end of 2019.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in December to 105.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in November, and a 0.2% increase in October.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in December to 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in November and a 0.6% increase in October.
Due to the partical governement shutdown, the board said, “Data for manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials for November and December and building permits were not published for December. The Conference Board has forecasted these series in order to publish a preliminary Leading Economic Index. Data for manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft for November are from the advance report for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders. In addition, The Conference Board is postponing the regularly scheduled annual benchmark revision of the composite indicators until all underlying data are available.”
