Lumber prices are rising again this fall after a sharp summer-long decline, prompted short-term by Hurricane Florence and longer-term by supply shortages amid rising demand.
A senior lumber buyer with 28 years of experience says that if the hurricane-driven rise in Southern yellow pine prices that he’s seeing now follows past patterns, prices will rise about 10% and last at that higher level roughly two months. That’s because hurricanes don’t just shut down mills; they also cause people to skip work as they repair their own homes and lead to new orders for mills in unaffected areas–assuming they have the ability to increase capacity.
This week’s rise comes after a summer in which, according to Random Lengths, prices for framing lumber fell from this year’s peak of $582 per thousand board-feet to $440 on Aug. 10, and then have bumped up to $453 as of Sept. 7. If recent years are a guide, those prices won’t be that low again for the rest of this year.
