According to the latest Mortgage Originator Sentiment Survey (MOSS), perceptions of the lending landscape have turned. Polling mortgage professionals who qualified for Scotsman Guide’s Top Originators rankings in June, the survey shows that 22% of respondents expect their business to perform better during the next six months compared with the first half of 2022. The percentage is down from January 2022’s findings, which revealed 49.4% were hopeful.
Low housing inventory among other downside pressures have impacted mortgage originators’ sentiment. The share of top-ranking originators who project poorer performance in the next six month nearly tripled compared with January 2022. What was once only 12.5% of originators is now 37% in June. Those who think that business will generally stay the same was 41.1%, up from 38.1% in January.
In terms of professions, mortgage brokers (29.7%) are more upbeat than bankers (20.8%) when looking toward the next six months. Additionally, 32.4% of brokers think that business will worsen in the next months, compared with 37.2% of bankers.
Geographically, originators in the South have the most positive outlook, with 24% forecasting better business in the next six months and 36% believing that business will backtrack. The Northeast region is the least positive with only 19.2% expecting better business and 42.3% expecting business to get worse.
“It’s certainly been an eventful first half of the year in the mortgage industry, but, unfortunately, a lot of the news hasn’t been as positive as we’d like from a lending standpoint,” says Jeffrey Sabourin, chief product officer for Scotsman Guide. “Many of the same risks we saw in January were heightened as the year went on, resulting in a vastly different market than the one we’ve enjoyed over the past couple of years.”
“Considering the heights that the housing market was able to maintain over that time, it’s important to bear in mind that the real estate environment remains fundamentally strong. But it’s more than clear that the calculus has changed, and originators are having to adjust accordingly,” he added.
