The “tale of two housing markets” persisted in 2024. Zonda data captured an increase in new-home sales in 2024 over 2023. Meanwhile existing-home sales came in at the lowest level in 30 years. Despite the similar overall trend to 2023, three main stories emerged throughout the year—shifts in builder market share, more housing supply, and massive buyer differences.
Builder market share. Big builders keep getting bigger with no end in sight. Back in 2005, big builders represented 25% of total transactions. That’s over 50% today. Further, there were about 14,000 home builders in the United States that were closing at least 10 homes a year in 2005. Current levels are just over 3,000. Put a different way, the housing landscape is very different than it used to be.
What has driven the shift? A combination of factors, including economies of scale, land and lot holdings, incentive usage, and more.
Changes in housing supply. There was a belief that the housing inventory would be tight indefinitely due to the lock-in effect. Nationally, the majority of housing markets are still operating with lower levels of inventory compared with 2019, but inventory levels were higher than 2023 in every month during 2024. In higher-production, higher-growth states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas, supply started creeping up last year and is at or above 2019 levels.
In some cases, this is a result of people tired of putting their lives on hold. Marriage, babies, divorce, and other life events have supported moves despite homeowners having a low mortgage rate. For others, rising insurance costs, property taxes, and HOA fees have financially strained existing owners.
Buyer differences. While it has been clear that the new- and existing-home markets have followed different paths, the same can be true for different buyers. For example, entry-level buyers have struggled financially given high home prices and interest rates. A lot of prospective buyers want to buy a home, but the math doesn’t make sense today. Conversely, higher-income, higher-wealth individuals have shown much less sensitivity to housing affordability and continue to fuel the market.
The early read on the 2025 housing market has been less optimistic. Tariffs, the resurgence of recession fears, and faltering confidence have softened enthusiasm. Home sales are steady but are trending below last year despite increased incentive usage and home price cuts. Expectations are for a more muted year compared with 2024.
Here’s a look at the top 100 and Next 100 firms ranked by 2024 closings; click here for a downloadable PDF. For more information on the rankings, email builder100@zondahome.com.
