Housing economist Tom Lawler, who shares insight and analysis on Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk site, predicts that population growth estimates from the Census overstate actual figures.
Overcount projections among immigrant population growth, especially under politically shifted conditions, offer a misleading view of the basics of housing demand stemming from population growth.
In the 2014 Census population projections the average annual net international migration assumption from 2017 to 2020 was 1.264 million. With the election of Donald Trump, however, virtually no competent analysts believe that such a projection is plausible. While it is extremely difficult to translate various Trump officials’ statements into actual projections of net international migration, it seems to safe to safe that a “best guess” projection from now through 2020 would be massively lower than the Census 2014 projections.
Lawler notes as well that projected estimates on the number of annual deaths, and the number of annual births were off in both cases, an under estimate on the deaths figure, and an overstatement on births.
Housing capital investment is based to a large degree on confidence in the Census measures of growth–population growth, labor force growth, and household growth. Lawler’s calculations predict slower growth across the board, and a less robust housing economy in the next few years due to lower demand than previously estimated.
That could impact the demand pool in the next five years.
